President Obama's place in history is, of course, already assured?he is the first African-American President of the United States. That he won a rousing reelection is more than icing on the cake, it is affirmation that Obama has changed our Nation in a profound way for all time.
But, it is quite clear that President Obama is looking for more than this regarding his legacy. Does he still have dreams of "transforming" politics?what I have derisively referred to as the Post Partisan Unity Schtick? It seems not.
Then what can he be hoping to achieve in terms of legacy?
Well, as the philosopher Yogi Berra has taught us, it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future. But the intrepid amongst us do so without fear. (And if you are a Washington pundit, with no reason to fear. Being wrong about everything is a feature, not a bug for the DC pundit.)
Obama's Legacy
History and legacy are strange things. They are more malleable than conventional wisdom would have. One of the subjects that has been of interest of mine has been the Lost Cause, especially its relationship to the reputation of Robert E. Lee, both as a general and as a human being. ?While this subject should be the topic of a series of posts, I merely note for this post that Robert E. Lee's legacy was the vehicle of a political movement, as well as a question of pride. But to prove the malleability of history, Lee's reputation as a general has suffered greatly when separated from the political motivations that spurred the creation of the Marble Man.
President Obama's legacy will, in the short term, be a political football. If the economy is in good shape come 2016, Democrats will be rushing to burnish it as much as possible. But over the longer term, burnishing President Obama will become secondary to burnishing whatever part of the policy legacy President Obama is able to create is conducive to successful Democratic politics.
FDR is still an icon to Democrats 80 years after the commencement of his presidency because his policy legacy, especially Social Security, is the centerpiece of what the Democratic Party is thought to be about. In addition, FDR's realignment of national politics stood for a very long time. President Obama's legacy will be viewed from this twin perspective.
The Bully Pulpit
President Obama once controversially said:
I don't want to present myself as some sort of singular figure. I think part of what is different is the times. I do think that, for example, the 1980 election was different. I think Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that Richard Nixon did not and in a way that Bill Clinton did not. He put us on a fundamentally different path because the country was ready for it. They felt like with all the excesses of the 60s and the 70s and government had grown and grown but there wasn't much sense of accountability in terms of how it was operating. I think he tapped into what people were already feeling. Which is we want clarity, we want optimism, we want a return to that sense of dynamism and entrepreneurship that had been missing."I understood his point, though I think it was inartfully delivered. Ronald Reagan changed the political conversation in the country. And the point goes to the power of the bully pulpit, properly understood. Too many have misunderstood the argument of the bully pulpit as being the power to force congresspersons from the opposing party (or even from the president's party) to bend to the president's will.
That is a faulty assumption. The power of the bully pulpit is to drive the national political conversation. Of course, some presidents are not good at this part of the job and have only fleeting influence. Some are constrained by their times (Obama made this point as well.)
But sometimes presidents change the political conversation in a lasting and meaningful way. Reagan did that. (Bill Clinton did not and could not because of the times in which he governed. Clinton's achievements did not include changing the national political conversation in a lasting and meaningful way.) What Reagan did was make Calhounism the dominant ideology of the Republican Party.
Can President Obama change the national political conversation? Is he trying to? I think he is. So does Ross Douthat, in reaction to President Obama's Second Inaugural Address:
This does seem like a sense in which, come what may in 2016 and beyond, Obama is already more like Reagan than he is like any other recent president of either party. His substantive achievements are still open to question, but he really has succeeded in pushing a philosophical reorientation of American domestic politics?tentatively in 2008, explicitly in 2012, and triumphantly in Monday?s address?that neither Bill Clinton nor George W. Bush ever really attempted.If the President does have a lasting effect on the political conversation regarding government, this would be a huge legacy item.
Policy Legacy
The Supreme Court
A president's second term does not often offer significant policy legacy opportunities. Mostly, a president's second term is an exercise in attempting to consolidate and defend policy victories of the first term. However, there is one area that has offered presidents legacy shaping opportunities?the Supreme Court. Will Obama have such opportunities? We should never wish ill health on anyone, but the fact is Obama's legacy shaping opportunities regarding the Court are entirely dependent on the health of its extreme right wing justices. They certainly will not retire voluntarily. (I believe the older non-conservative members (Ginsburg and Breyer) should retire to enable the President to name two younger persons for the Court.)
Can President Obama positively shape the Court in an unexpected way? We can't know for sure, but justices with innovative progressive ideas about the Constitution are not likely to be nominated in this term for the simple reason that such a nomination might not be confirmed. It is not fair to ask the President to risk it in my view.
But there is nothing special about this legacy. The opportunity either arises or it does not. It is out of the president's control.
The Affordable Care Act
What is in his control? Not everything or in toto, ANYTHING. But he can do a lot. Consider his most important substantive new policy?the Affordable Care Act. For the most part, the ACA has not been implemented. In my view, this should be the "new" policy priority for the Obama Administration. The longevity of ACA is not assured at this time. Successful implementation is critical to having ACA stand for a significant time (and to improving it in progressive ways.) If the second term of President Obama's presidency does nothing "new" except successfully implement ACA, it will have accomplished a big f*cking deal.
Future Political Success for the Democratic Party: A Third Democratic Presidential Term
I place this in policy goals because the most important protection to President Obama's legacy will come from delivering political success to the Democratic Party in the near future. Especially holding the White House in 2016.
But what can President Obama do to help there? The answer is obvious?everything he can to help average Americans in these times of economic uncertainty and difficulty. Yes, for politics, it is the economy, stupid.
Of course this is an incomplete list of of policy initiatives and goals that the second term of the Obama presidency can impact, but I do think it includes the most important that are achievable (climate change is more of a bully pulpit goal it seems to me, though it should be noted the president promised EPA action if the Congress did not act. But, as I state above, the most important accomplishment the president can achieve regarding climate change in his second term is to positively impact the future political success of the Democratic Party.)
Assessing the Legacy of the Obama Presidency
As I stated at the outset, the historic nature of the Obama presidency is assured. It will remain its most important legacy no matter what he accomplishes. That said, President Obama clearly is aiming for more than that, and rightfully so.
In terms of achievements, additions to the first term successes seem unlikely, However, successfully preserving and implementing these successes is essential. Absent that, the Obama legacy will be light in terms of policy.
The most important achievement of an Obama second term will be the creation of a political climate that will put the 2016 Dem candidate for President in a good position to win a third Democratic term.
As Markos has noted, Hillary Clinton is well positioned to win that third term. ?But there are no guarantees in life or politics, and, oddly enough, the most important legacy issue for the second Obama term will be his successor. Helping average Americans in these hard economic times will have the biggest impact on that. ?
boston globe google maps 8 bit mirror mirror robyn texas relays meniscus the colony
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.